Connecting Common Ratio and Common Consequence Preferences | Jason Somerville

Jason Somerville

Connecting Common Ratio and Common Consequence Preferences

Christina McGranaghan, Kirby Nielsen, Ted O’Donoghue, Jason Somerville, and Charles D. Sprenger

Forthcoming, Journal of Political Economy

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Abstract

Common ratio and common consequence effects are two foundational deviations from expected utility (EU). Most non-EU models treat them as global preference features, yet there has been little experimental exploration of parameters. Moreover, the two effects are typically analyzed independently despite their natural link through mixture attitudes. We empirically characterize combinations of preferences across the parameter space, documenting new regularities that are inconsistent with leading non-EU models. Finding no prominent model that can explain these regularities, we propose a model of “upside potential” motivated by our results.